Qaddafi Files Part II

My notes from the conference I attending this past fall continue.  These notes are from an academic expert.  They are a work in progress (I will add more to this post soon)--incremental progress is progress nonetheless.

           Qaddafi’s  redefinition of himself (and Libya) as a pan-african vice pan-arab country is a result of some realist calculus. 

            It’s important to note that the African Union (AU) came into being in Sirte, Libya in 1999 (the Sirte declaration).  Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt all split up the initial costs to setup the AU.   Due to his pressure the African Union transition from the AU Commission to the AU Authority.  Thus far, this has been a change in name only (and the AU still routinely refers to the AU Commission). 

            For Libya, the economy has become more and more of a driver.  There are currently six major investment companies within the country (I was scribbling furiously and didn’t get all of them but attempted to verify as best as I could online):

Libya Investment Authority (LIA)

Economic and Social Development Fund (ESDF)

Libya Africa Portfolio for Investments (LAP)

Libyan Arab Foreign Investment Company (LAFICO)

Libyan Finance Investment Company (LFIC)

            The following things are Libyan owned:

-In Mali: 100,000 hectare acquisition

-Major hotels throughout Africa

-In Uganda: 69% of telecomms

-Recently made $2 billion bid for SHELL downstream assets in Africa

- Recently made a $350 million bid for a 75% stake in Zambian telecomms

-Owns aviation fuel in 28 Africa airports

-Owns 1,250 TAMOIL retail outlets throughout the world

NOTE: while all of these are sound investments, there is an implicit threat to withdraw support from dissident countries.  In the longterm, Libya is seeking to expand its pipleline building, but Libya’s technical capacity is limited. 

            As is evident, Libya acts across multiple sectors to include charities such as the one which built a mosque in Kigali.  Another example is Qaddafi’s financing of the life (essentially) of Queen Mother of Uganda’s Best Kemigasa (I would add though that there have been numerous rumors linking the two romantically).  Despite sound economic activity across the board, Libya (and Qaddafi really) has not given up on ultimately exerting political influence across the continent on the next generation. 

            As one can see in much of the current news, there is a transformation in Libya due to migration: 10% of the population are immigrants. 

“By now, most African leaders have taken in Qaddafi the measure of the man and have learned how to deal with him, BUT they haven’t come to grips with the influence of his sovereign wealth funds.  Most neighboring states just seek to remain on good terms with Libya.”  Mainly because they don’t have any other alternative. 

            This panel (from Fall 2010) concluded with a discussion on Qaddafi’s succession, which is especially timely today.  Most people there placed their bets on a shootout.  One person noted the tremendous amount of US contract work going on infrastructure-wise within Libya.  At the time, the lead panelist favored Seif Al-Islam stating that he came off better internationally (now of course this doesn’t hold as true).