Weekly Reading: Spooks, Buchanan!, Loss, Sanctuary cites, Mada's Legal Morass, FAOs and I am 2nd

How an obscure adviser to Pat Buchanan predicted the wild Trump campaign in 1996
Well this is an interesting article...but who could have really predicted Trump...

On Flying, and Who We Lost
A beautiful heartbreaking post about aviation, friendship and loss.

I Am Second
Then who's first, you will have to see for yourself.  Some incredible videos and stories.

The Struggle With Sanctuary Cities in Iowa
I am learning new things about our crazy political/electoral system all the time.

Eyewash: How the CIA deceives its own workforce about operations
The CIA, of course, denies any knowledge...between articles like these and watching Homeland...

UPDATE: Law and Legal Systems in Madagascar: A Political Siege
A good primer on the pol-legal systems of Madagascar.  I've been here two years and there were quite a few things that I learned.  It's difficult to find much political analysis on Madagascar in English so this was nice to run across.  One quote in particular caught my attention: "Montesquieu recommended that “power should be a check to power” to avoid abuses. However, Madagascar which wishes to be a democratic regime views the legislature and judiciary subordinated to the executive. Further, the Constitution appears to be an instrument used to legitimate and strengthen its supremacy."

IS THE UNITED STATES CONDUCTING THE CORRECT TYPES OF SECURITY COOPERATION MISSIONS IN THE AFRICAN CONTINENT?

This links auto-downloads the PDF--a bit annoying but so far a good 50 pages thesis that I am reading through.    His short answer is yes but AFRICOM needs a more balanced approached in Phase Zero ENCAP, MEDCAP and SC/SA activities.  You can just skip to page 48 to read his conclusions.

Foreign Area Officers learn from the experts at Monterey language school
Nothing I love more than a little FAO propaganda!

"Every FAO is an expert on political-military issues in a particular region of the world, is knowledgeable of security cooperation, highly trained in language skills and interpersonal skills, and is an experienced officer."

We definitely are not trained in 'interpersonal skills' but it's not a bad idea...although I am not sure what that would look like

On the fallacies of the $2 a day argument: 90% of Madagascar lives on $2 day

On the fallacies of the $2 a day argument: 90% of Madagascar lives on $2 day

There' a dearth of well-written academic articles on Madagascar so I am always eager to pass on any that I find.  This post includes two such articles.  The first one talks about the source of Madagascar's economic woes and references the second article--actually a paper--about the influence of census efforts (or lack of efforts) in Madagascar on the political and economic landscape.  The second one is written in French (and posted below)--once I write out the translation I will post it here.

   Anyway, the title of the article "90% of Madagascar Lives on Less Than Two Dollars a Day" is a little misleading because that's not really the point of the article.  The Global Voices Online Website publishes has a great bullpen of independent writers and they also have people who translate articles into other languages.  In this case, the title of the original French article was called "The Causes of Economic Decline in Madagascar."

    This whole idea of measuring and evaluating a country's economy by how many dollars a day its people live on is deeply flawed--namely when it comes to evaluating states whose populations are largely subsistence farmers.  A subsistence farmers $2 a day is much better off (in reality) than a country with a large urban population.

     But that point is just an aside--a pet peeve of mine.  The article itself is great look at some possible causes for Madagascar economic lethargy and struggles--although I wish it delved deeper into the deleterious effects of the revolutionary socialist policies under Ratsiraka.  The best part about the article, though, was that I found a Madagascar research facebook group through reading the article!  This has turned out to be a cool academic resource and you should check it out!  The article also has some links to some other useful sources.

LINKS:
http://globalvoicesonline.org/2013/09/19/90-of-madagascar-lives-less-than-two-dollars-a-day-why/

https://www.facebook.com/groups/158712627482575/

African Legislature Grad School Notes

IMPORTANT NOTE: DON'T CHEAT. DON'T PLAGIARIZE. Notes and Papers are shared here for reference and for studying. Footnote as appropriate.

BONUS LINK:  My entire (so far) grad school notes collection can be found here. 

African Legislature Grad School Notes

            

H. Kwasi Prempeh, “Presidents Untamed,” Journal of Democracy 19, 2 (April 2008)

Joel D. Barkan, “African Legislatures and the ‘Third Wave’ of Democratization,” in Joel D. Barkan (ed), Legislative Power in Emerging African Democracies (Lynne Rienner, 2009)

Staffan Lindberg, “What Accountability Pressures do MPs in Africa Face and How Do They Respond,” Journal of Modern African Studies 48, 1 (2010)

- When the opposition is well represented, there are those in parliament with incentives to assert legislature as legislature…regardless these are self interested parties.  In Kenya’s case the MPs get paid 125K a year (well above median income)—they say that it keeps them from being corrupted.

- at the end of the day the MPs themselves may be interested in reform—he sees the push for free secondary education as a signal that they may be trying to reduce the resource demands upon themselves by providing constitutent services.

***the thrust of this argument is that nothing is broken—it’s just answering the call of the people that force the system to act in this way—a bottom up problem that requires a top down solution.  So why do the constituents act in this way?  You have to find that out.

- this also point to the failure of institutions but why would people want anything different—they know they can get something tangible currently—broad public works or services are things they necessarily see. 

- This comes from their perception and expectations of how the whole system works—we elect you and you give us stuff. 

- closer to the Hiden argument is the idea that there’s a moral obligation to provide for the community from which you come.

- in some cases equally important is for the MP to be seen as being vocal and active in the parliament—“that’s my guy” mentality

- parliamentary systems weren’t originally designed to operate with a president so they were at odds

- in the 90’s it was redesigned to be more appropriate for a president system which creates the opportunity for more institutional roles—but they are starting from ground zero

- without permanent staff—how effective can an MP be?  They need the committee staffs, otherwise they just don’t ever address these types of issues (like a defense committee would do)

- A PR system might address the problems of the constituent services demanded but that might also open up another set of challenges.    You might also be taking a hit on democracy though

*How people are elected is important—

- the idea of “the provider”—the moral economy argument would show that most people don’t really even have an idea of what their MP does—he is just another with means.

- a pro-western monarch who oversees an Islamic democracy is perhaps the most palpable of situations—this ensures democracy will continue and not just “once”

LINKS:
http://insights.wri.org/news/2012/12/why-africa-needs-open-legislatures

Notes on African Elections (Articles by Lindbery, Bratton and Gazibo)

BONUS LINK:  My entire (so far) grad school notes collection can be found here. 

Notes on African Elections (Articles by Lindbery, Bratton and Gazibo)

Staffan Lindberg: "The Democratic Quality of Competitive Elections: Participation, Competition and Legitimacy in Africa,” Commonwealth and Comparative Politics 42, 1 (March 2004)

- Eventually things will get better.  If he reran this data today, what would it show?

- Elections themselves are funded internally and its only the election monitoring that is external. 

*A major obstacle is that every time there’s a breakdown, the election cycle starts over—therefore they have trouble getting to that magical fourth election. 

- By the 4^th election though, the winning party has a 74% share of seats (on average) which is effectively a single party state. 

Michael Bratton, Ravi Bhavnan and Tse-Hsin Chen, “Voting Intensions in Africa: Ethnic, Economic or Partisan?” Commonwealth and Comparative Politics 50, 1 (2012)

                       

- Challenging pessimist argument that in absence of big middle class are identity based which can only generate instability over time (therefore there’s never any swing vote)—exacerbating the problem.  There’s some ethnic voting but the evaluation of the economy (and partisanship matters).  Identity matters, but not that much. 

Mamoudou Gazibo:“The Forging of Institutional Autonomy: A Comparative Study of Electoral Management Commissions in Africa,” Canadian Journal of Political Science 39, 3 (September 2006), 

- Electoral commissions are extremely important but there’s a lot of variation.  Some have been able to create autonomy.  An independent and autonomous EC contributes directly to freer and fairer elections.  He doesn’t explain WHY some become better and some don’t.  A good EC makes the elections less politicized. 

- Need to look at the people who are in charge of the electoral commission—this is perhaps the biggest factor.  Example in Togo, where no one even tries.  

CRS Report: How the Electoral College System Works

CRS Report: How the Electoral College System Works

Below is a timely report on the specifics of the Electoral College System.  

You can pull this out when your son or daughter starts asking you to explain what the electoral college is.  

Short Notes and Discussion Questions on Bradbury's Becoming Somaliland

BONUS LINK:  My entire (so far) grad school notes collection can be found here. 

Short Notes and Discussion Questions on Bradbury's Becoming Somaliland

*Since the book’s publication:  Close 2010 election (significantly late though) with incumbent losing and a smooth transfer of power.

Questions:

What’s been going on in Somaliland and why?  What are the pivotal contributing factors?

What about the direction of the process over time?  Positive and/or negative trends?

Follow on questions:

What are the implications for Somalia and the region?

What role and influence did the colonial rule have on Somaliland—when compared to Somalia? 

TIPPING POINT:

If conflict over sea port hadn’t been quickly resolved—Somaliland would have quickly devolved into Somali and wouldn’t be where it is today.  This fighting was resolved by elders (NOT the SNM or militia)—not but ultimate war of attrition.  The institutions that evolve aren’t initially hybrid—they are traditional—later they morph into hydrid institutions. 

And eventually the SNM disappears all together—because there’s no resource base for them to exploit. 

Final Question:

Transition to democracy can be risky or might not work because of a lack of economic diversity and because of fading efficacy/power of elders?