Notes on Nye's "Understanding International Conflicts"

BONUS LINK:  My entire (so far) grad school notes collection can be found here. 

Notes on Nye's "Understanding International Conflicts"

Below are my grad school notes on the first four chapters of Nye's Understanding International Conflicts: An Introduction to Theory and History (7th Edition) .




Another IR Essay I wrote.

Chapter 1: Is there an enduring logic of conflict in world politics?

INTRO:  The world is shrinking and making conditions we once knew nothing about in remotie countries relevant. The new century will yield more states (vs. the idea of globalization/homogenization)—since 1989 intrastate war has been on the rise.

*What is international politics?

            3 forms of world politics:  world imperial, feudal and anarachic system of states (aka territorial states)

            Order and justice: national concerns outweigh concerns for international justice

            What does the 21^st century hold?

*Differing views of anarachic politics:

            Realist and liberal approach to international politics view the state of nature differently.

Realist: Hobbes/Thucydides, continuity, state actors only, military force only

Vs.

Liberal: Locke, state of trade prevents war, change, globalization due to disease, climate change, nations want to just survive

“Theories are roadmaps to unfamiliar territory”

*Building blocks: actors, goals and instruments

            There are no longer just state actors—there’s now IBM, Shell etc

            There is no longer just military security—there’s human security etc

            There’s no longer just military force alone—there’s economic etc

*Peloponnesian War (in which Athens was eventually defeated by Sparta)

            - Thucydides says it was because Sparta feared Athen’s rise.

            - But perhaps it was actually a prisoner’s dilemma (security dilemma) where the   best outcome collectively isn’t the best one individually.

            - But this requires communication, trust (difficult in anarchy), and    credibility

Is War with China inevitable?

*Ethical Questions in International Politics

            - There exist moral arguments for and against war.  A good argument considers motives, means and consequences.

            - Ethic’s role in international politics is smaller because of the varied scale of  morals and causation

*3 Moral categories: Skeptics, State Moralists and Cosmopolitans

Skeptics: Might makes right, Morals have no place, no choices exists

State Moralists: good fences make good neighbors, state sovereignty trumps all, society of states

Cosmopolitans: no borders only humanity, redistribution, society of individuals

*Just war doctrine prohibit killings of civilians

Chapter 2:  Origins of Great 20^th Century Conflicts (10 JAN 2012)

International Systems and Levels of Causation

*The international political system is the pattern of relationships among the states

            The system produces the consequences, which can ones unintended by the actors (Ex. From Bolshevik revolution to Stalin entering a pact with Hitler)

*Geopolitics has a role with half of all conflicts between 1816 and 1992 occurring between neighbors.

            - There’s also a propensity to checkerboard alliance to counterbalance neighbor.

Levels of Analysis

*Waltz’s 3 levels of causation: the individual, the state and the international system

*Idea that if all countries were democratic there’d be less war

- System level analysis is explanation from outside-in (how the system constrains the state)

- second level is inside-out (outcomes explained by happenings inside state)

*The rule of parsimony (occam’s razor) = say a lot with a little

            Range of a theory is also important and how many possibilities/anomalies it addresses

Systems and Process

*Structure of a system refers to its distribution of power and process refers to patterns and types of interactions among its units

- Unipolar, bipolar, multipolar:

            Unipolar system tend to degrade as states rise to challenge sole leader

            Bipolar system breeds rigid alliances and increase risk of global war

            Multipolar tend to have flexible alliances and if war, it’s a limited one

***Author touts that during bipolar cold war no central war occurred for more than 40 years…but a lot of SMALL conflicts did (ex. Proxy wars in Africa)

- International system process is determined by: it’s structure, the surrounding cultural and institutional context and whether states are revolutionary or moderate

Revolutionary and Moderate Goals and Instruments

*A realist structural theory can be added to by constructivist work as was the case with the French Revolution

- States can change their goals and their means          

            Sometimes these means are technical like the advent of the machine gun and

            Sometimes social like Napoleon conscription

The Structure and Process of 19^th Century System

- For structural realists the big change came with Germany’s unification in 1870.  This disrupted the balance of power.  They were either strong enough to take on both France and Russia or if not, they might be weak enough to be invade. 

            However, an individual prevented mayhem: Bismarck was a gifted and focused interlocutor who formed and maintained a complex systems or treaty’s and alliance that prevented full scale war from 1870 to 1890. 

*WWI was not inevitable…human choice played a role, as did the post-Napoleonic changes in Europe (process)

            - Shock from Napoleonic war setup the 1815 Congress of Vienna.

*Constructivist attention to process reminds us not be blind to social change

A Modern Sequel

*There were similar worries in Europe when East and West Germany united but there were several reasons the past wasn’t repeated:

            - American stayed involved

            - The EU played a uniting role

            - Domestically, Germany had the benefits of 50 years of democratic process in     

            West Germany

Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy

- Neorealism: state act similiarly because of international system…HOWEVER, domestic politics DO matter

            EX: Peloponnesian War started with domestic conflict between the oligarchs and   democrats in Epidamnus

- Classic Liberalism: War is bad for business, thus capitalist states are peaceful….HOWEVER WWI quashed this notion.          

            ***I would add that war itself is a business stimulant from an economic     perspective though

Liberalism Revived

*Resurgence of liberalism in 1960s and 70s along the lines of economic, social and political

            - Trade gives states a way to transform their standing through economic growth     vice military conquest.  The Japan example is often used, HOWEVER the US was         providing their security for them!

- Neoliberalism emphasize the importance of institutions because they stabilize (and thereby provide escape from security dilemma) in 4 ways:

            1. provide sense of continuity (EU)

            2. provide opportunity for reciprocity (time will balance out unevenness)

            3. provide flow of information and transparency

            4. provide method/means for conflict resolution (EU Commision and Court of        Justice)

*Today’s liberals seek islands of peace or pluralistic security communities

Liberal Democracy and War

- Liberalists and constructivists both tout power of democratic values

            They say liberal democracies don’t fight each other, however they do still vote to go to war at times

            *Furthermore, states transitioning to democracy are MORE likely to engage in       conflict

Defining National Interests

- Realists = states have little choice in defining their national interest due to the international system which dictate their national interests and foreign policy

            - However, liberalists and constructivist say there’s much more to it domestically

            Than that

           

Variations in Foreign Policies

* Can be due to revolutions, changes in bureaucracy (***p. 51 Vietnam example is a bit simplistic

Counterfactuals

- These are contrary to fact conditionals, and they illuminate the role of the accidental and give us a way to examine significance of causal factors

*You can tell if a counterfactual is good using:

            1. Plausibilty (cotenability)- must be reasonable

            2. Proximity in time- closeness of two events in chain of causation

            3. Relation to Theory- this makes them useful by tieing into broader knowledge

            Base

            4. Fact- need to be accurate (multiple CFs just confuse the issue)

CHAPTER 3 BALANCE OF POWER AND WWI

BALANCE OF POWER

- WWI often blamed on balance of power.  Some say that BoP causes stability BUT that doesn’t mean peace (but does mean preserving independence).

            *BoP has preserved the anarchic system

Power

- The ability to achieve one’s purpose/goals; to affect others to get a desired outcomes.  It can also mean holding resources. 

            Power conversion is the capacity to convert potential power to realized power (measured by other’s changed behaviors).  However, power resources are context dependent. 

            EX: Bismark’s use of railway technology

- Hard power: can depend on carrorts (inducements) or sticks (threats)

- Soft (attractive) power: getting others to want what you want

            It’s not necessarily more effective or ethical than hard power (e.g. OBL)

EX: Hard power necessary against hardened terrorists, but soft power needed to win hearts and minds of mainstream populace

Balances as distributions of power

*BoP can mean:

1. Distribution of power

            Hegemonic stability theory: imbalanced power = peace

2. Policy of balancing requires two assumptions to predict behavior:

            - Structure of international politics is anarchic system of states

            - States value their independence above all else

            *State will join the side that seems weaker

            *Efforts to use ideology to predict state behavior are often wrong, whereas            counterintuitive balancing of power predictions are often correct.

                        China, USSR, Vietnam and Cambodia were not in fact, all the same

            *However important to note that perceptions of threat are influenced by the          proximity of that threat

3. Describe multipower historical cases: this depends on structure and process to explain 

            Structure is in alliances whereas the process is in nationalism and meetings etc.

ORIGINS OF WWI

Intro:

- As the alliance system became less flexible, the BoP became less multipolar and the likelihood of war increased

Three Levels of Analysis:

- system level (structure and process), domestic societal level, Individuals

- system level: rise of German Power and increased alliance system rigidity

            Rise of nationalism

            Rise in complacency about peace

            German policy vague and confusing

- domestic societal level:

            Internal crisis of declining Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman empires

            Domestic political situation in Germany: Rye and Iron Coalition

- individuals:

            Mediocrity of leadership: Franz Joseph, Count Berchtold, Czar Nicholas II and Kaiser wilhem II. 

Was War Inevitable?

- No.

            - Deep causes were changes in the structure of BoP and parts of domestic political            systems.  Also big was rise of German strength, bipolar alliance development, nationalism etc….

            - Intermediate causes were German policy, complacency and leadership      idiosyncrasies.

            - Precipitating cause was Franz Ferdinand assassination

What Kind of War?

-  Using counterfactuals can help explore this issue, but ultimately human choices matters

            EX: In June 1914, Britain sent 4 battleships to Germany for a state visit—SO probable doesn’t equal inevitable

Lessons of History Again:

- Beware of:

            *complacency about peace

            *next crisis will fit same pattern as last crisis (Iraq)

*Today the ideology and acceptance of war is much weaker than the prevailing fatalist Darwinist argument of the era

****Is this really true, where does NYE get this from?

CHAPTER 4: THE FAILURE OF COLLECTIVE SECURITY AND WWII

The Rise and Fall of Collective Security

- Wilson a classic liberal/idealist who viewed BoP as immoral

- BoP seeks to preserve sovereign state system—NOT peace

- Wilson sought to change this international system from BoP to collective security

The League of Nations

- Collective sec:

            Make aggression illegal and outlaw offensive war

            Deter aggression through coalition on non-aggressors

            If deter fails, ALL states punish

*International law supercedes domestic law

- 3 differences between CS and BoP

            In CS, focus is on aggressive policies NOT capacity

            In CS, coalitions are NOT predetermined until aggressor acts, but then requires ALL

            CS is global and universal, NO neutrals

- Ambiguity of LoN undermined it from the start

            US refusing to join

            Article 16 not specific—states can decide not join in sanctions or actions

         
LINKS:
http://fuuo.blogspot.com/2012/08/thoughts-on-us-response-to-alien-signal.html

Thoughts on a US Response to an Alien Signal

BONUS LINK:  My entire (so far) grad school notes collection can be found here. 

You Are on the NSS and You Receive an Alien Signal from Planet Gliese

(Full article is below) 
 
            While the considerations are extensive, the paramount question is a simple one:
to answer the door or not. That this knock took twenty years to reach the United States
from the previously unknown Planet Gliese-581-g (referred to as Gliese hereafter), with
any response carrying the same delay, hearkens back to an age-old era of diplomacy
that existed before World War I and the advent of the telegram and other technological
advances.  Therefore, it is crucial that the President take time in responding, fully
evaluating all possible courses of action, outcomes, and their effects on international
relationships.  Callières warned against neophytes that sought to play the role of
diplomat when they did not know the “interests, the laws, the customs, the language…the
geographical situation” of the countries with which they interacted. In this case, the
U.S. government knows very little about Gliese outside of its ostensible technological
capacity. If the Washington decides to respond, they must send an immediate message
stating that the U.S. is working towards a solution, and also request complete background
data (population and natural resources), and information (history, system of government)
for the Planet Gliese to assist in helping them. After all, if Gliese does not have uranium
or a similar element, telling them how to develop nuclear energy likely will be a fruitless
exercise.

Conclusion:

 If the U.S. decides to respond, though, then the benefit of a multilateral response
depends on if Gliese was truthful and if nuclear energy does indeed save their planet. If
both of these are true, then only the U.S responding would provide the maximum benefit
of the prestige of saving a civilization and the gaining of a strong (at least
technologically) ally. If the response backfires in anyway though, then the U.S. would
benefit from a multilateral response. There is precedent over the last century to hedge
the U.S. response in this manner, as this is the manner in which the United States, and its
partners, have conducted humanitarian intervention over the last 50 years.

Words of Wisdom: 101 Tips from the World's Most Famous Authors » Online College Search - Your Accredited Online Degree Directory

Words of Wisdom: 101 Tips from the World's Most Famous Authors » Online College Search

The first few are below:

1. Ernest Hemingway. Use short sentences and short first paragraphs. These rules were two of four given to Hemingway in his early days as a reporter–and words he lived by.
2. Mark Twain. Substitute "damn" every time you want to use the word "very." Twain's thought was that your editor would delete the "damn," and leave the writing as it should be. The short version: eliminate using the word "very."
3. Oscar Wilde. Be unpredictable. Wilde suggested that "consistency is the last refuge of the unimaginative."
4. Anton Chekhov. Show, don't tell. This advice comes out of most every writing class taught. Chekhov said it most clearly when he said, "Don't tell me the moon is shining; show me the glint of light on broken glass."

Grad Schol Extensive Notes on Iliffe's "Africans"

BONUS LINK:  My entire (so far) grad school notes collection can be found here.

 

Grad School Extensive Notes on Iliffe's Africans

Embedded below are the extensive notes (book highlights) from Africans.  The second embedded document contains my discussion notes on the book that I originally posted here.

Classroom Discussion notes on Iliffe’s Africans: The History of a Continent

Original Blog Post is Here (or below)

"Africa is a Country's" Phenom Summer Tumblr Reading List

Africa is a Country's Summer Tumblr Reading List

Africa is a Country is a great blog and twitter account.  A few weeks ago it put out a list of 'Africa' tumblr accounts.  Because they are tumblr blog their stories are mainly told through photos; below is their intro--go to their excellent site for the complete list.

From AIAC:

Tumblrs are basically micro blogs for lazy readers who want some eye-candy. They are usually about photos; and tumblr is one of the new genres of social media that rewards one for being able to curate the work of others without the fear of a lawsuit, thus far. Most tumblrs are judged by the number of other tumblrs following them … brings back memories of myspace.com. In picking tumblrs for your viewing consideration while AIAC takes a break in August, I tried out some loose guidelines in the hopes of being fair to all: AIAC tumblr was not considered despite how much we know you love it … do check it out though, in case you previously ignored us. Our tumblr editor will love you for it. I tried to stay on message and only considered tumblrs that dealt specifically with Africa. Hybrids mixing African topics with other topics were dropped out of contention. I also tried to drop off any tumblr that had Africa or Afrika in its name. But that was impossible as some of the best of the best all fail this test. So scratch that. I considered different genres and topics in the spirit of diversity but in the end I just gave up on that too and went with what I liked. Without further ado, here are my top photo tumblrs, not in any particular order, that I think you should be following if you have any interest in Africa. With these tumblrs, a picture is definitely worth a thousand words.

37thState
The 37thState tumblr is a venture of a collective of filmmakers in Lagos. Based on their posts, one can easily tell that these are film-makers with good taste. They feature style, culture — rural or urban — and never fail to make one think “beauty” when one goes through their blog. I want whatever they are on at the 37th State.

FAOA Elections till 28 August--Vote Early, Vote Often

FAOA Elections till 28 August

If you are a member of the Foreign Area Officer Association then you can vote in this year's Board of Governors elections.  If you are not a member of FAOA, consider joining.  $30 gets you a year long subscription to the magazine, as well as access to exclusive job postings and discounts at FAOA events.  

Membership isn't limited to military FAOs either; the Association is a great networking tool.  

If you do vote, please consider using all one of your votes on me (this is the first year that I am putting my hat in the ring).  

The elections message pasted from the excellent FAO Association Website (you can vote there):

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VOTING IS NOW OPEN FOR THE FOREIGN AREA OFFICER ASSOCIATION ELECTION

NAME AND BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH FOR EACH PERSON NOMINATED FOR A POSITION ON THE FOREIGN AREA OFFICERS ASSOCIATION BOARD OF GOVERNORS:

The following Foreign Area Officers Association (FAOA) members, in alphabetical order, have been nominated for a position on the Board of Governors. Biographic sketches have been lightly edited to make them roughly the same in length and emphasize FAO assignments and experience. Current elected Board of Governors members running for re-election are indicated with an asterisk (*). Those elected will serve a three-year term beginning 1 October 2012. Voting will be on line at the FAOA website from time of this posting until 28 August 2012. That date – 28 August 2012 – is the official date of the election and no vote will be accepted after 1700 hrs Eastern Daylight Time.

You may vote for up to six members.

1. Michael (“Mike”) Dugan, CAPT USN (Retired)

Captain Dugan’s military and civilian work experience carried him all over the world. As a reservist on active duty he served in the Philippines, Japan, Thailand, Somalia, and Oman. When recalled to active duty in 2003 he was Navy Central Command Liaison Officer to CJTF-5 in Baghdad. While assigned to Pacific Command he was deeply involved in planning for three iterations of Exercise Cobra Gold in Thailand; he also worked on many joint exercises with Japan while stationed at Barbers Point, HI. During Operation Deny Flight (Kosovo) he was chief planner of NATO and Italian air forces. In civilian life, working for Lockheed Martin he was leader of over 200 contractor pilots, sensor operators, and mechanics in Afghanistan. Mike is near-fluent in the Italian language. If elected to the Board of Governors, Mike is particularly interested in using his experience to serve as Editor-in-Chief of the FAO Journal of International Affairs. Mike lives in the National Capital Area.

2. Jonathan Dunn, MAJ US Army, Russia/Eurasia FAO.

Major Dunn is a policy analyst and international affairs specialist in conventional arms control at the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). He previously served as assistant professor at the United States Military Academy, where he taught courses on Russian and European politics, international relations, and comparative politics. Major Dunn has also served in many command and staff assignments as a cavalry officer in the U.S. Army, including a six-month deployment to Bosnia-Herzegovina and a fifteen-month deployment to Iraq as a troop commander. He holds a M.A. in International Relations & International Economics from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and a B.S. in Civil Engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point. He has volunteered to become editor-in-chief of the FAO Association Journal of  International Affairs if elected. He resides in the National Capital Area.

3. Michael R. Ercolano, LTC USMC, Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia FAO.

Lieutenant Colonel Ercolano currently serves as Marine Attaché, USDAO Manila, the Philippines. He began his military service as an enlisted Marine and has more than 21 years of active military service. He is a graduate of the Joint and Combined Warfighting School and is a Distance Learning student at the Air War College. Michael’s other FAO assignments include duty as a research fellow, Osaka University School of Public Policy; as Defense Logistics Agency Liaison Officer to US Forces Japan; and Chief of Staff, Ministry of Interior Transition Team, Baghdad. Mike has held a number of senior leadership positions in civilian organizations and has served as a fiscal/budget officer during several military assignments. He resides in Manila, The Philippines.

* 4. Michael Ferguson, COL USA (Retired), Africa FAO. FAO Assn Board of Governors Member, currently President Emeritus and Sponsorship Committee Chairman.

Colonel Ferguson is a member of the DIA Attaché System Hall of Fame, the Infantry OCS Hall of Fame, and is a member of the Board of Directors, National Military Intelligence Association. He has been an enlisted Medical Platoon Sergeant (Viet Nam and Korea) an Infantry Officer (Germany and Turkey) and has extensive executive and hands-on experience in intelligence collection, operations, planning, and training. He is a recognized expert on African affairs, with broad inter-agency experience as an African analyst, including five tours in Africa as a Defense Attaché (Ethiopia, South Africa, Tunisia and Cameroon). Mike also served two years as the first Chief of HUMINT Training and Professional Development as well as the Dean of the Defense Attaché School with additional responsibility for the STC program and the Defense Debriefing School. Colonel Ferguson is a life member of the FAO Association, was a charter member of the FAOA Board of Governors, and served as the second President of the Association. He is currently an independent consultant. Mike resides in the National Capital Area.

*5. John Haseman, COL USA (Retired), Southeast Asia FAO. FAO Assn Board of Governors Member, currently Assistant Editor of the FAO Journal International Affairs, and Chairman of the FAOA Elections Committee.

Colonel Haseman is a member of the DIA Attaché System Hall of Fame. He entered the Army FAO program in 1974, shortly after it was established, and from 1974 through his retirement in January 1995 he “single tracked” as a FAO. His FAO assignments included Commander Udorn Field Office, Udornthani, Thailand; Army Division Chief, US Defense Liaison Group Jakarta, Indonesia; Assistant Army Attaché to Indonesia; Senior Analyst for Southeast Asia, ACSI, Army HQ; Defense and Army Attaché, Rangoon, Burma; and Defense and Army Attaché, Jakarta, Indonesia. He served 2 ½ years in combat in Vietnam, with the 9th Infantry Division (1967-68) and as a district-level advisor (1971-73). He is author or co-author of four books and numerous book chapters dealing with Thailand and Indonesia; more than 250 of his news and analytical articles on Southeast Asia political-military subjects have been published in journals in the US, Europe, Asia, and Australia. He is fluent in the Indonesian language and also speaks Thai and Burmese. Colonel Haseman has been a member of the FAOA Board of Governors since 2009, and has volunteered to be Copy Editor for the FAO Journal. He resides in Colorado.

6. Brian Hobbs, LTC USAF (Retired), Northeast Asia/China RAS (FAO).  FAO Assn Board of Governors ex officio (non-voting) Member.

LTC Hobbs has provided significant contributions to FAO Assn events and is now seeking expanded responsibilities as an elected full Board member. He served as manager for the 2010 FAO Assn Black Tie Dinner, and served on the committee for the 2011 and 2012 Black Tie Dinners. Brian also serves on the FAOA Membership Committee. Brian began service in the Intelligence career field, and retired from the Air Force as a fully qualified Foreign Area Officer/Regional Affairs Strategist (FAO/RAS) for China and Northeast Asia (Japan & Korea). He has proficiency in the Chinese, Japanese, and Korean languages. He taught Chinese and Japanese at the U.S. Air Force Academy, and taught Northeast Asian international relations and U.S. foreign policy as an exchange officer to the Korea Air Force Academy. His final assignment was to Air Force HQ, International Affairs (SAF/IA) where he conducted Foreign Military Sales (FMS) and political-military relations with Northeast Asian countries, and also established the new Air Force FAO career field, Regional Affairs Strategists. He recently returned to his FAO background, joining the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF F-35) Program Office as a Japan FMS Analyst. Brian resides in the National Capital Area.

7. John (“Jack”) Kruse, LCDR USN, Africa FAO.

Lieutenant Commander Kruse is currently pursuing a Master's degree in National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School. As the child of a Marine FAO, he lived in Morocco for a portion on his youth and fondly recalls playing soccer with the children of the diplomatic Maghreb elite. In previous military assignments, LCDR Kruse deployed to the Persian Gulf aboard USS Nimitz and subsequently served three years as the Safety Officer for Commander Helicopter Sea Combat Wing Pacific, where he developed a safety instruction program recognized as best practice Navy-wide. LCDR Kruse's following tour was in the Pentagon on the CNO N3N5 Staff as the Africa Desk Officer, during which the Navy Foreign Area Officer community selected him for accession. Notably, Jack created a week-long DC inter-agency indoctrination course for all Navy FAOs headed to Africa Security Cooperation assignments. He has written about African culture and literature, and life in the Pentagon and as a grad student, since 2010 at his blog "For Unofficial Use Only" (www.fuuo.blogspot.com).  Jack currently resides in Monterey, CA.

* 8, Kurt Marisa, COL USAF (Retired), European RAS (FAO). FAO Assn Board of Governors Member and currently FAO Assn President.

Colonel Marisa retired from active duty in July 2012. His final assignment was as a Deputy Director in the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence. Colonel Marisa was a career intelligence officer who became an Air Force European FAO and Regional Affairs Strategist (RAS) in 1998. He served as Military Attaché to Saudi Arabia, Air Attaché to the Kingdom of Denmark and Greenland, and Defense Attaché to Suriname. He has also had military assignments in Germany and Korea and deployments to Saudi Arabia and South America. Colonel Marisa has an M.S. in International Studies from the Institute of Social Studies (ISS) in The Hague, Netherlands, and an M.S. in Strategic Intelligence from the National Intelligence University (formerly JMIC).  He is a graduate of the Air War College, from which he wrote and published his course paper on the integration of Attaché and Security Assistance programs, contributing at the SECDEF level to the current DoD Senior Defense Officer (SDO)/DATT program. Colonel Marisa has served on the FAOA Board of Governors since 2004, as Vice President from October 2009 to May 2011, and as President from May 2011 to the present. Kurt resides in the National Capital Area.

9. Jason (“Brad”) Nicholson, MAJ (P), US Army, Sub-Saharan Africa FAO.

Major Nicholson currently serves as Chief, Office of Security Cooperation, US Embassy Kampala, Uganda. His previous FAO assignments include a tour as the Foreign Area Officer at US Embassy Tanzania; the Lebanon, Syria, Israel desk officer for J5, JCS; and as the Deputy Branch Chief, Middle East and Africa (G-3/5/7), the Army Staff. Major Nicholson is fluent in both French and German. In addition to his various international affairs positions Major Nicholson is a frequent contributor to the FAO Journal, the DISAM Journal, and other publications. Major Nicholson is a member of the Editorial Review Board for the FAO Journal. Brad has long been involved with administering extracurricular organizations and is currently serving as Vice-President for Memberships, Team Army Cycling (a USA Cycling sanctioned club), and as a member of the Alumni Advisory Board for the Georgetown University Public Policy Review. Major Nicholson resides in Kampala, Uganda.

*10. Graham Plaster, LT USN, EUCOM FAO.  FAO Assn Board of Governors Member, currently Secretary and Webmaster.

Lieutenant Plaster is a Liaison Officer supporting US military deployed to UN Peacekeeping missions in Israel, Egypt and Iraq. He previously served as a Surface Warfare Officer aboard the USS Reuben James (FFG 57) out of Pearl Harbor, deploying in support of OIF and OEF to the Persian Gulf. Subsequently he joined the staff of Destroyer Squadron One in San Diego and deployed in support of Counter Drug Operations in South America. He also served as Assistant Dean of Students at the Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island. While there, Lieutenant Plaster completed a Masters degree in Humanities at Salve Regina University with a thesis on electronic democracy in Iran. He built an internal wiki for student collaboration and knowledge management. After selected as a Naval Foreign Area Officer, he studied Arabic at DLI. While in Monterey, he became webmaster for the Foreign Area Officer Association of Monterey. He now serves as webmaster for the FAO Assn.  He is currently writing a book on social media influences on democratization in Iran. Graham resides in the National Capital Area.

11. James (“JB”) Shelton, COL USAF (Retired), European FAO.

Colonel Shelton began service in the US Marine Corps, including a combat assignment in Vietnam. A former C-130 and C-5A pilot, JB’s air force career included assignment as Assistant Air Attaché to Italy; Commander of the USAF 696th Intelligence Group (Humint) and principal liaison for Humint exchanges with Germany, Korea, and Japan; Chief of the Middle East, Africa, and Strategic Counterterrorism Operations, DIA; Dean of the Joint Military Attaché School; and Deputy Executive Director of the Defense Humint Service. Since retirement, JB has worked as a consultant on defense and intelligence matters. He was Program Manager for the design, development, and implementation of the Near East/South Asia Center for Strategic Studies. He currently serves as Director of Operations for JTG Inc., providing language and cultural services, analysis, and operations support across the Intelligence Community and commercial sector. He supports the FAO Association as co-chairman of the FAO Assn Pentagon FAOA Heritage Display initiative. JB resides in the National Capital Area.

12. Michael Trahan, COL US Army (Retired), Africa/Middle East/Western Europe FAO.

Colonel Trahan had a varied career in policy and security assistance assignments and filled command billets up to the brigade level. His most recent assignments included Deputy Director for Middle East and Africa, DIA; Deputy Director for Near East and South Asia, OSD-ISA; Senior Military Assistant to the Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs; J3 Plans Officer at CENTCOM; and as Political and Military Advisor to the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Near Eastern Affairs. Mike holds a BA in History from Texas A&M University and a Masters in National Security Affairs from the Naval Postgraduate School. He is also a graduate of the State Department Senior Seminar. He is a linguist in Arabic and Hebrew and also speaks French and German. Colonel Trahan retired in 2005 and worked at senior executive levels of several international defense and aerospace corporations. He is now President of Alternate Axis, his own consulting company to the defense and aerospace industries. Mike lives in the National Capital Area.

LINK:
http://www.faoa.org/Default.aspx?pageId=498955&eventId=530114&EventViewMode=EventDetails

Genocide in Syria? Early Warning Systems for Genocide

BONUS LINK:  My entire (so far) grad school notes collection can be found here. 

Let me preface this post by saying I know VERY little about Syria.  My studies mainly focus on those countries on the African continent but many of my courses this quarter peripherally touch on Syria. This means that I write my ideas from a place of humility, eager to continue to read and learn from country and regional experts.  

Genocide in Syria?

Were I a Shia--or an Alawite (or a Christian for that matter)--I would make sure I had a back packed to hightail it out of Syria as quickly as possible.

I just read  Barbara Harff's No Lessons Learned from the Holocaust?  Assessing Risks of Genocide and Political Mass Murder since 1955 for my class on ethnic conflict and it opened my eyes to the possibility for future genocides to occur around the globe.

Harff identifies several variables that can be used as early warning identifying markers but there is one that has the biggest demonstrated influence:  a formerly dominant minority that loses power due to state failure is 2.5 times more likely to become targets of a genocidal campaign.  This means that the Alawite minority and Christian minority (espousing an economic power instead of a political one) would become the targets when they lose power.
Questions:
Would the Alawites be better off seceding when they lose power and forming their own state in the northwest region of Syria?
Would a post-Assad Syria be better off (of course what does that mean--better off for who?) without the Alawites and Shia as part of Syria?
Does this idea open the door too wide for the possibility of ethnic cleansing?

Of note there are other early warning models out there, most notably at the Sentinel Project.

LINKS for further consideration:

http://thesentinelproject.org/guest-blog-could-rwanda-see-another-genocide/
http://thesentinelproject.org/wp-content/uploads/Genocide-in-Rwanda-Recurrence-Risk-Model-Using-Two-Early-Warning-Models-Clarinda-Solberg.pdf
http://thesentinelproject.org/our-work/early-warning-system-overview/