IR Hypotheticals: If Biggie Smalls Were to Grade Qaddafi Using the 10 Crack Commandments

I started the post below about 5 years ago but never finished it.  Within the world of International Relations there's always a good amount of discussion on counter-factuals and hypotheticals which can be downright gloomy.  If I have the good fortune to get my doctorate one day, I think this type of comparison below would liven up the classroom atmosphere.

Now I think my motivation level with regard to Q has passed the time has passed with regards to Qaddafi so I offer my incomplete post below just to, you know, get my brilliant ideas out there in the universe (warning some foul language below because, you know, this is a rap song by a drug dealer).

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In honor of Biggie Smalls day, I have decided to grade Qaddafi by the most gangster of grading mechanisms: Notorious' 10 Crack Commandments (video link is at the end of this post).   An interesting fact is that prior to his timely demise, he was a prolific hotelier in Africa.  If you stayed at a hotel on the continent it was likely one that he built and owned.  


1. Never let no one know, how much, dough you hold.  Q has definitely done a bang up job here.  All anyone can do is guess.  CBS News reports on it here.


2. Never let 'em know your next move. Q has been surprising the world for 40 years now.  He's a stalwart disciple in this respect.  Especially when it comes to wardrobe choices:


3. Never trust no-bo-dy.  Woops.


 4. Never get high, on your own supply.  I don't think anyone who has watched his speeches has any doubt about this one.  


5. Never sell no crack where you rest at.  


6. That god damn credit, dead it.


7. Keep your family and business completely separated.  Q fails big time here.  Nepotism is the rule not the exception.  


8. Never keep no weight on you.  Q fails.  Fails. Fails. Fails.

9. If you ain't gettin bags stay the fuck from police.  For the uninitiated, this means don't snitch. 


10. A strong word called consignment.  

You can listen to the 10 Crack Commandments here.

More fun stuff:
The Madmen of Africa

"Libya: Transition and U.S. Policy" Congressional Research Service Report

 I love these reports--always great summaries and good starting points for understanding issues.

"If voters approve a constitution in a national referendum, then new elections are to be held by mid-2013, bringing a nearly two-year transition process to a close."

 "As of August 2012, USG has provided more than $200 million in assistance to Libya since their 2011 uprising."

"Libya: Transition and U.S. Policy" Congressional Research Service Report by Christopher Blanchard

What role do tribes play in the revolution in Libya?

15 May Update: I recently wrote a paper on the Libyan Revolution: A Coalition to What End.
       
     So when you go to the link you will have to give them your email address to get the entire article (it's free though).  I would post the whole article here, but STRATFOR (and they put out some GREAT products) might not appreciate it and I won't open that door.  But I will include a couple of tidbits that I gleaned from the article.  This was a great article because I knew nothing about the role of tribal dynamics and came away with a deepened understanding.  And, now when I hear names of tribes which I have no clue about, I have a source document to which I can refer. 

"the foundation of his rule has been maintaining ties between his own tribe and the two largest tribes in the country. "  This is referring to the Qadhafi tribe and the Warfallah and the Magariha

"Libya has an estimated 140 tribes, only about 30 of which are viewed as having any real significance. "

"[three historical zones that make up Libya: Tripolitania, Cyrenaica, and Fezzan.]"

"the typical Libyan — a person of mixed Arab-Berber descent " And most Libyans live along the coast.

"Cyrenaica is where the current uprising began in mid-February. "

"Cyrenaica has long being oriented toward Egypt and the eastern Islamic world, with Tripolitania more oriented to the western Islamic world and the Maghreb."

"Tripolitania is the Gadhafi Tribe"

"since the Gadhafi tribe is not especially large, the Libyan leader has been forced to form confederations with others."

"[“Jamahiriya,” a word coined by Gadhafi  and means “state of the masses,” it was to do away with antiquated notions of tribalism and focus on national identity.]"

"[The Warfallah is the largest tribe in Libya. With an estimated 1 million members.  The Gadhafi and Warfallah have blood ties]"

"[On Feb. 20 Warfallah Tribal Elders released a statement in which they condemned Gadhafi]"

 "[The Zuwaya tribe  reportedly controls  the Sarir, Messla and Aquila oil fields.]"

"Two top officials in the regime that come from the Obeidat tribe have made very public defections in recent days: Maj. Gen. Suleiman Mahmud and Maj. Gen. Abdel Fattah Younis]"

"[The Magariha tribe is the second-largest in Libya. The most powerful member of the Magariha tribe is Col. Abdullah al-Sanussi, the head of the Jamahiriya Security Organization (JSO)]"

"[There are prominent Magarihas, however, who are said to have joined forces with the opposition. ]"

"[The Tuaregs, however, matter because of their ability to attack oil and natural gas infrastructure deep in the Libyan desert.]"  This tribe lives entirely in the desert in the Fezzan region.

"[the Tuaregs have a much different culture and history (not to mention language and appearance) from the Arabic peoples along Libya’s coastal regions, as well as the “pure” Arab Bedouins who live in other parts of the Libyan desert. ]"

"[The Toubou more closely resemble sub-Saharan Africans than their countrymen to the north. (Indeed, when reports first emerged about African mercenaries employed by Gadhafi to suppress the uprising, there was some confusion as to whether they might have been Toubou elements of the Libyan military mistaken for foreigners.)]"

"[Gadhafi must ensure that the tribes loyal to him continue to stay loyal and hope that the use of force will help him to overcome the widespread opposition to his rule.]"

Two good articles on Libya and the 'mercenary' issue

        Read these two articles to get a sense of just one slice of the myriad issues at hand in Libya.   I came across these two articles via the always excellent Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS) daily media review (also available en francais).  If you aren't a subscriber already, you should sign up!  You can also follow them on twitter (AfricaACSS).  You're on twitter right?     

Libya: African mercenaries 'immune from prosecution for war crimes'
"The key paragraph said that anyone from a non-ICC country alleged to have committed crimes in Libya would “be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction” of their own country. It was inserted despite Susan Rice, the US ambassador to the UN, saying that all those “who slaughter civilians” would “be held personally accountable”. "  Algeria, Ethiopia and Tunisia are among the countries that aren't part of the ICC court.   This hypothetically means that a mercenary from one of those countries couldn't be tried for their war crimes in the ICC.  Of note, the author points out that the US withdrew from the ICC in 2002 in "an attempt to prevent a precedent that could see Americans prosecuted by the ICC for alleged crimes in other conflicts."  As always, there's more to the issue than a quick superficial article I am sure. 

Gaddafi’s ‘African mercenaries’: Myth or reality?  In juxtaposition to first article the author of this article points out some of the subleties surrounding the term "African mercanaries."  I would add that 10% of Libya's population are immigrants. 
"‘According to a United Nations Human Rights statement – ‘Libya must end its practices of racial discrimination against black Africans, particularly its racial persecution of two million black African migrant workers. There is substantial evidence of Libya’s pattern and practice of racial discrimination against migrant workers’
‘Against such a background it is perhaps reasonable to question the validity of this supposed use of “African” mercenaries by the Gaddafi regime to thwart the efforts of protesters. Given Libya’s relatively large black population, are we to assume or conclude that their presence in Gaddafi’s security forces is that mysterious? If so I wonder why?"
    This article is well worth the time to read since the author has aggregated a number of articles on the issue, including one which speaks to the depth of Libyan influence (largely financial) on the continent of Africa. 

I will leave you with one question that is subject to debate:

What is the difference between a mercenary and private corporate security?

One book that was recommended to me is "Elimination of Mercanarism in Africa: A need for a continental approach" edited by Sabelo Gumedze.  I haven't had the chance to read it, but will be sure to provide a review on the ever expanding FAO Reading List (please let me know if you have suggestions for books I am missing). 

Good article from The Oil Drum on Libya and their oil exports

A very informative article on Libya's history in the context of it oil production.  A ton a great charts as well.

Qaddafi Files Part II

My notes from the conference I attending this past fall continue.  These notes are from an academic expert.  They are a work in progress (I will add more to this post soon)--incremental progress is progress nonetheless.

           Qaddafi’s  redefinition of himself (and Libya) as a pan-african vice pan-arab country is a result of some realist calculus. 

            It’s important to note that the African Union (AU) came into being in Sirte, Libya in 1999 (the Sirte declaration).  Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt all split up the initial costs to setup the AU.   Due to his pressure the African Union transition from the AU Commission to the AU Authority.  Thus far, this has been a change in name only (and the AU still routinely refers to the AU Commission). 

            For Libya, the economy has become more and more of a driver.  There are currently six major investment companies within the country (I was scribbling furiously and didn’t get all of them but attempted to verify as best as I could online):

Libya Investment Authority (LIA)

Economic and Social Development Fund (ESDF)

Libya Africa Portfolio for Investments (LAP)

Libyan Arab Foreign Investment Company (LAFICO)

Libyan Finance Investment Company (LFIC)

            The following things are Libyan owned:

-In Mali: 100,000 hectare acquisition

-Major hotels throughout Africa

-In Uganda: 69% of telecomms

-Recently made $2 billion bid for SHELL downstream assets in Africa

- Recently made a $350 million bid for a 75% stake in Zambian telecomms

-Owns aviation fuel in 28 Africa airports

-Owns 1,250 TAMOIL retail outlets throughout the world

NOTE: while all of these are sound investments, there is an implicit threat to withdraw support from dissident countries.  In the longterm, Libya is seeking to expand its pipleline building, but Libya’s technical capacity is limited. 

            As is evident, Libya acts across multiple sectors to include charities such as the one which built a mosque in Kigali.  Another example is Qaddafi’s financing of the life (essentially) of Queen Mother of Uganda’s Best Kemigasa (I would add though that there have been numerous rumors linking the two romantically).  Despite sound economic activity across the board, Libya (and Qaddafi really) has not given up on ultimately exerting political influence across the continent on the next generation. 

            As one can see in much of the current news, there is a transformation in Libya due to migration: 10% of the population are immigrants. 

“By now, most African leaders have taken in Qaddafi the measure of the man and have learned how to deal with him, BUT they haven’t come to grips with the influence of his sovereign wealth funds.  Most neighboring states just seek to remain on good terms with Libya.”  Mainly because they don’t have any other alternative. 

            This panel (from Fall 2010) concluded with a discussion on Qaddafi’s succession, which is especially timely today.  Most people there placed their bets on a shootout.  One person noted the tremendous amount of US contract work going on infrastructure-wise within Libya.  At the time, the lead panelist favored Seif Al-Islam stating that he came off better internationally (now of course this doesn’t hold as true).

The FUUO Qaddafi Files: Part 1

I had the opportunity to attend a conference at a think tank this past fall and was fortunate to scribble down copious notes from the experts (acknowledged academic experts as well as diplomatic ones, i.e. ambassadors).  I am pretty sure this conference fell under the Chatham House rule so I have removed their names but wanted to share their insight in light of recent events. 

A career diplomat opened with a perspective on the history of Qaddafi.    He broke up Qaddafi’s evolution/development into 4 distinct phases:  Anti-zionism and support for African independence, exportive revolution, “I am an African”, and finally “I am president of Africa.” 

            Beginning in the 1970’s, his initial anti-zionism stance was largely an attempt to court the Arab world and emerge as a leader within/of it.  During this time period, the United States closed its embassy (and Wheeler Field) there.  By and large, this attempt was a failure.  However, Qaddafi’s support of African independence does resonate within the continent.  Indicative of his influence over the years is that the first place Nelson Mandela visited after being freed from prison was Libya (then the United States, followed by Cuba). 

            In the 1980’s the “Exportive Revolutionary” or “Coup-maker” phase began. 

One question from a senior State Department offical to the speaker during that time period has stuck with him all these years.  Secretary asked him: “How can we hurt Libya?”  This question ignited many efforts including the beginning of satellite imagery analysis which revealed guerilla training of the various groups in the Sahel region. 

Some of the people being trained included Liberian Charles Taylor and his followers (only 100 people at the start).  Of all the ‘guerilla training’ conducted by Libya, only Taylor’s resulted in the successful overthrow of a government.  Taylor’s initial attack occurred on December 24, 1989 and lead to a devasting 7-year war.  During this war, Qaddafi funneled arms, money and supplies through the Sahel to Burkina Faso and then through the Cote D’ivoire by truck along the coast into Liberia.  He also set up another hub in Benin (their leader at the time held political views similar to those of Qaddafi). 

            One area that the U.S. determined it could hurt Libya was Chad.  During the 70’s and 80’s Qaddafi ‘Finlandized’ Chad through troop presence and financial support.  So the U.S. began covertly supporting rebel leader Hissène Habré (Habré has been dubbed “the African Pinochet” by the Human Rights Watch and currently awaits trial for atrocities committed).   In 1987, Habré began an offensive which routed the occupying Libyan forces in Northern Chad. Shortly after this victory, Habré was brought to the White House for a congratulatory lunch with President Reagan.   During this same time period, Libya also sent 50 taxis to The Gambia in an attempt to help upset and overthrow the government there.  Habré is said to have commented that the reason Qaddafi acted the way he did in West Africa was because “he never accepted the fact that slavery had ended.”

            From 1987-1992 sanctions against Libya began.  Without any Arab support a new Qaddafi emerged: “I am an African.”  And so he began major investments throughout the continent through Libyan government owned companies.  Of interest is that Libya owns the Golden Tulip Hotel in Accra, Ghana (reportedly the only nice hotel).  When President Obama visited there he was unable to stay there because of his fact.  His emergence as a self-proclaimed “African” soon developed into his aspiration to become the “President of Africa.”  Promoting African unity, Qaddafi was quick to proclaim his ability to bring the continent together.  In 1998, he was instrumental in the formation of CEN-SAD (The Community of Sahel-Saharan States) which today has 29 members but also has limited effectiveness.  From this position, he began mediating African conflicts in an effort to exert ‘benign influence’ starting in 1999.    His aspirations to become “President of Africa” met ten years later when he was elected as the head of the African Union (for a term of one year).  During this time period, he continued to push his pan-african vision of a single country, currency, army and passport for all Africans.